4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 2

Chicago Bears 0 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 1-C.Parkey 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 2, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP