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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 76

Chicago Bears 3 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 61 yards to ARI 15, Center-48-P.Scales. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 15 for no gain (27-S.McManis).

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model