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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 19

Chicago Bears 3 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(7:26) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 12-A.Robinson II to ARI 18 for 1 yard (51-G.Hodges).

The Three Options

GO +2.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.73 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model