4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 61

Chicago Bears 16 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(:55) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to ARI 13, Center-48-P.Scales. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 20 for 7 yards (93-S.Acho).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +0.58 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 61, worth -1.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 20, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model