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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 64

Carolina Panthers 28 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 5-M.Palardy punts 59 yards to CIN 5, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 14 for 9 yards (40-A.Armah; 53-B.Jacobs).

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.02 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 22, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model