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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 20 at the 35

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Carolina Panthers 28

What Actually Happened

(7:19) 4-R.Bullock 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.91 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model