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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 22

Carolina Panthers 28 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 9-G.Gano 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +1.91 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 32, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model