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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 58

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to SEA 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett. PENALTY on SEA-23-N.Thorpe, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at SEA 14.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.07 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 58, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP