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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 31

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 2-B.Maher 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.84 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 31, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 41, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP