Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 86

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Seattle Seahawks 17

(11:14) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to SEA 38, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.57 EP
59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 86, worth -5.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model