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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 81

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(8:53) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to DAL 36, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-T.Austin to DAL 43 for 7 yards (49-SM.Griffin).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.97 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 81, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 38, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model