Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 69

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Dallas Cowboys 13

(5:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to DAL 21, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-T.Austin to DAL 20 for -1 yards (28-J.Coleman).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.16 EP
53% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 69, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model