Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 73

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(4:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley to DAL 43 for 16 yards (37-T.Flowers) [99-Q.Jefferson]. PENALTY on SEA-99-Q.Jefferson, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 43.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP

What Happened

54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.42 EP
46% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 73, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model