4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 83

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to DAL 44, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-T.Austin to SEA 44 for 12 yards (51-B.Mingo).

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.35 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 83, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 41, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model