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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 23

Green Bay Packers 0 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.43 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model