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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 43

Green Bay Packers 17 – Washington Commanders 28

What Actually Happened

(2:33) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 18-R.Cobb to WAS 40 for 3 yards (40-J.Harvey-Clemons). Washington challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.86 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model