Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 77

Washington Commanders 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:03) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to GB 28, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 18-R.Cobb pushed ob at GB 33 for 5 yards (40-J.Harvey-Clemons). PENALTY on GB-35-J.Whitehead, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.83 EP
65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model