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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 70

Green Bay Packers 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(8:26) 6-J.Scott punts 49 yards to WAS 21, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.11 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 70, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 28, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model