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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 41

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 2-R.Sanchez punts 31 yards to PHI 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 30-C.Clement.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.76 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 41, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model