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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Indianapolis Colts
4th & 2 at the 28
Indianapolis Colts 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 10
What Actually Happened
(11:35) 20-J.Wilkins left end to PHI 23 for 5 yards (58-J.Hicks).
The Three Options
GO
+1.71 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.27 EP
- 46% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 28, worth -1.27 EP
KICK
+0.99 EP
- 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
- 20% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 38, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT
-0.18 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
