Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
Indianapolis Colts
4th & 3 at the 4
Indianapolis Colts 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 20
What Actually Happened
(1:19) 12-A.Luck sacked at PHI 20 for -16 yards (96-D.Barnett).
The Three Options
GO
+1.77 EP
What Happened
-
44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +4.54 EP
- 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 4, worth -0.38 EP
KICK
+2.06 EP
Model's Pick
- 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
