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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 71

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(:53) 1-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to IND 19, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-T.Hilton ran ob at IND 29 for 10 yards. PENALTY on IND-30-G.Odum, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 21. Penalty on IND-30-G.Odum, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.43 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -1.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 29, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model