Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 91

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 2-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to PHI 38, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 30-C.Clement MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 39. 30-C.Clement to PHI 39 for no gain (44-Z.Franklin). PENALTY on PHI-50-L.Reynolds, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 39.

The Three Options

GO -3.29 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.24 EP
61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 91, worth -5.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model