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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 28

Los Angeles Rams 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(:04) 5-S.Ficken 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +2.63 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 38, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model