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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 20

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Los Angeles Rams 28

What Actually Happened

(8:28) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 81-M.Williams for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.75 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 20, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model