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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 71

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 8-D.Kaser punts 52 yards to LA 19, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-J.Natson to LA 20 for 1 yard (42-U.Nwosu).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.26 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 29, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model