Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 18 at the 78

Los Angeles Rams 35 – Los Angeles Chargers 23

(7:49) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to LAC 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 89-J.Jones to LAC 40 for 11 yards (11-K.Hodge).

The Three Options

GO -2.84 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.77 EP
74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model