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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 18

New England Patriots 0 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(:44) 3-S.Gostkowski 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.74 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 18, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 28, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model