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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 14

Detroit Lions 20 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.30 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 14, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 24, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model