Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 80

New England Patriots 10 – Detroit Lions 23

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to DET 29, Center-49-J.Cardona. 39-J.Agnew to DET 39 for 10 yards (43-N.Ebner). PENALTY on DET-47-T.Walker, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 30.

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.02 EP
63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 80, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model