Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 76

Detroit Lions 23 – New England Patriots 10

(9:26) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to NE 26, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 41-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.54 EP
57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 76, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model