Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 87

New England Patriots 10 – Detroit Lions 23

(3:23) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 13-P.Dorsett. NE-13-P.Dorsett was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

What Happened

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.55 EP
63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 87, worth -3.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.93 EP