Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 76

New England Patriots 0 – Detroit Lions 3

(5:03) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to DET 40, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 76, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model