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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 67

New England Patriots 0 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to DET 21, Center-49-J.Cardona. 39-J.Agnew to NE 48 for 31 yards (49-J.Cardona, 43-N.Ebner). PENALTY on DET-24-N.Lawson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 32.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 67, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 25, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP