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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 44

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.46 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model