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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 31

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 3-W.Lutz 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. Kick hit left upright and went through.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.05 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 31, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 41, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model