Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 57

Atlanta Falcons 7 – New Orleans Saints 10

(8:02) 5-M.Bosher punts 37 yards to NO 20, Center-47-J.Harris. 41-A.Kamara to NO 27 for 7 yards (20-I.Oliver).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.78 EP
65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 57, worth -2.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model