Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 13 – Atlanta Falcons 14

(1:46) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to ATL 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.55 EP
72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 61, worth -3.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model