Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 56

Atlanta Falcons 21 – New Orleans Saints 16

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 5-M.Bosher punt is BLOCKED by 57-A.Okafor, Center-47-J.Harris, RECOVERED by NO-52-C.Robertson at ATL 28. 52-C.Robertson to ATL 16 for 12 yards (20-I.Oliver).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.15 EP
70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 56, worth -3.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model