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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 1

New Orleans Saints 23 – Atlanta Falcons 29

What Actually Happened

(10:03) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 42-Z.Line for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.58 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 1, worth +0.43 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model