Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

(10:33) 5-M.Bosher punts 48 yards to NO 22, Center-47-J.Harris. 41-A.Kamara to NO 21 for -1 yards (34-B.Poole).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
53% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model