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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 26

New York Giants 7 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(11:53) 2-A.Rosas 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.68 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 26, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 36, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model