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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 35

Houston Texans 6 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 7-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.98 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model