Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 19 at the 84

New York Giants 20 – Houston Texans 9

(2:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to HOU 31, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 39 for 8 yards (35-C.Riley).

The Three Options

GO -3.29 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 84, worth -4.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model