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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 4

Houston Texans 15 – New York Giants 27

What Actually Happened

(:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 26-L.Miller for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-23-B.Webb, Defensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +2.83 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.99 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 4, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +2.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.03 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth +0.03 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model