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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 80

Cleveland Browns 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 4-B.Colquitt punts 55 yards to NYJ 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-A.Roberts ran ob at NYJ 37 for 12 yards (20-B.Boddy-Calhoun).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.13 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 80, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 37, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model