Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 94

New York Jets 14 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 4-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to CLE 44, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-J.Landry. PENALTY on CLE-38-T.Carrie, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 44.

The Three Options

GO -3.47 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.76 EP
68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 94, worth -5.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model