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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 75

New York Jets 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(12:35) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to CLE 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 26 for 2 yards (36-D.Middleton).

The Three Options

GO -2.80 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.75 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -4.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 32, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model