Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 62

New York Jets 14 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(12:35) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to CLE 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-J.Landry to CLE 25 for 17 yards (42-T.Hennessy). PENALTY on CLE-37-D.Rice, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.79 EP
69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 62, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model