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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 73

New York Jets 14 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(3:41) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to CLE 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-J.Landry to CLE 31 for 8 yards (23-T.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.47 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 73, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model